Q3 2024 Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis Reveals Complex Dynamics

Work Truck Solutions®, the leading commercial vehicle authority, released its Q3 2024 Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis today. While the commercial vehicle market overall continues its recovery, the interplay between new and used truck segments reveals a series of subtle yet significant indicators that warrant attention.

Inventory

New work truck inventory continued climbing, with increases of 5.8% Quarter 3, 2024 over Quarter 3, 2023 (QoQ) and 39.7% Year over Year (YoY). Conversely, used truck inventory decreased by 6.0% QoQ and 15.7% YoY.

The diminished used vehicle inventory is as expected due to previous years of slow new truck sales. The forecast for new commercial vehicles to begin appearing in the used market in significant numbers is three to five years. This aligns with typical lease terms and company fleet replacement cycles.

Prices

New work truck prices continued their ascent, rising by 0.8% from Q2 and 1.0% YoY. In contrast, used work truck prices softened, falling by 1.7% compared to last quarter and 9.0% from the same period the previous year, likely due to the increasing mileage of unsold used vehicles.

Days to Turn

Days to Turn (DTT) for new work trucks increased significantly, by 22.1% compared to Q2 and a monumental 69.4% year over year. Used truck DTT decreased by 2.7% from last quarter and 2.2% year over year. 

Mileage (Used)

Used work truck mileage continued to rise, with the average mileage of sold units increasing by 4.3% QoQ and 5.8% YoY.

Again, this upward mileage trend is expected to continue until enough new vehicles become ripe for remarketing, raising available used inventory and also impacting median mileage.

Sales

New work truck sales continued a modest growth trend with an increase of 9.9% QoQ and 5.2% YoY. Within the light and medium-duty segment, which makes up the lion’s share of sales, pickups, empty cargo vans, and passenger vans led the charge. Conversely, used truck sales declined by 1.3% compared to last quarter and 7.4% year over year.

However, when examining a two-year snapshot of work truck sales, we see used vehicle sales numbers that mimic the overall availability trends. In contrast, new vehicle sales remain closer to pandemic levels even though new vehicle inventory continues to rise sharply. This is due to the rapid increase in interest rates, concerns over an election year, and confusion over EV adoption.

BEV Insights

The BEV work truck market continues to fluctuate, with new BEV prices increasing by 2.2% QoQ, but falling 10.8% YoY. Used BEV prices showed steep declines, falling by 5.4% compared to last quarter and 25.9% year-over-year.

"The commercial vehicle market is revealing some complex dynamics this quarter," said Work Truck Solutions CEO Aaron Johnson. "While new truck inventory is steadily climbing, we're not seeing the corresponding surge of on-lot inventory in the used truck segment. This lag is expected, as it takes time for new trucks to enter the used market, especially considering the lingering effects of past supply chain disruptions.” Johnson went on to say, “Furthermore, external factors such as the recent hurricanes, interest rate changes and the upcoming presidential election are likely contributing to uncertainty among buyers. However, damage from the two major natural disasters will necessitate work truck purchases in the near future, even though many business owners are waiting to see how nationwide elections impact potential shifts in government incentives for low-emission vehicles.”